Reaching Carbon Neutrality in China

Temporal and subnational limitations of renewable energy scale-up

Zhang, Z., Zhu, Z., Gordon, J., Lu, X., Zhang, D., & Davidson, M. R.
Advances in Applied Energy

papers renewable_energy_planning journal_article Oct 17, 2025

Key Findings

  • China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal requires an unprecedented, rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy technologies.
  • Historical renewable deployment is geographically imbalanced, risking future integration and socio-economic equity.
  • New modeling shows all regions must drastically increase deployment, with high-pressure provinces reaching 100% by 2060.
  • Without Carbon Capture (CCS), deployment rates must increase by 33% and peak a full decade earlier.
  • A 1.5°C target doubles transmission needs and intensifies early-stage deployment pressure in resource-rich regions.
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Recommended Citation
Zhang, Z., Zhu, Z., Gordon, J., Lu, X., Zhang, D., & Davidson, M. R. (2025). Reaching carbon neutrality in China: Temporal and subnational limitations of renewable energy scale-up. Advances in Applied Energy, 100238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100238